Tuesday, October 07, 2008

"What drives value, stock prices, inflation, employment and everything else that comprises our economy is PERCEPTION"

Steve Sturm has some insight into why the economy looks so bad at the moment (via Instapundit):

The stock market and the economy will be in the toilet until November 5, 2008, at which time both will slowly start to recover from what ails them, with the recovery accelerating on January 20, 2009...

Those dates are, for those few of you who need to be told, the date after Obama wins the Presidency and the date he takes office.

And why will the sun again start to shine on those dates?

Because once Obama wins, the MSM will no longer have an interest in shoving negative stories down our throats. And on the day he takes office, they'll have an interest in playing up how well things are now going.


I agree that the financial crisis is in part psychologically induced by the media to assist getting Obama in office. Hopefully, after that it will be resolved with the media switch to world peace, economic prosperity and happiness for all (except Republicans) after Obama gets in. But there is also a chance that once started, people's economic fears may take a while to die down and the problems that were exacerbated by the media will take some time to resolve, or there is always the chance that the doom and gloom stories will backfire and those who would have invested and spent will still be wary to do so.

Labels:

36 Comments:

Blogger Trust said...

From the NY Times on September 30, 2008:

"In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.

"The action will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans.

"Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits."

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0DE7DB153EF933A0575AC0A96F958260&sec=&spon=&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

Of course, this is being painted as Bush policies ruining the utopia that Clinton set up. Ironically, the democratic party is positioned to benefit from Clinton's disaster.

8:27 AM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger JG said...

The date of the article was September 30, 1999.

I don't think we'd see Fannie Mae writing that now (or even a few days ago). LOL

8:37 AM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger JG said...

I think that there is an underlying value to financial instruments (a la Graham / Dodd), but the price of a share in a company may move above or below the value due to perception and emotional factors. The price eventually comes back in line with the true value (or overshoots it on the other side).

It's not ALL perception.

8:41 AM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger JG said...

... may TEMPORARILY move above or below the value ...

8:41 AM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger Larry J said...

I've read that 2/3rds of the US economy is driven by consumer spending. Consumer confidence is an expression of people's perception of the economy. If you can convince people that things are worse than they really are, then you can have a significant impact on the economy for a time. Retailers are already reporting steep declines in consumer spending for last month. That has to leave a mark.

Back in 1992, Clinton and Gore ran around the country saying we were in "the worst economy in 50 years." The Press dutifully reported and supported the line. Then, within days of Clinton winning the election, the Press finally reported that the economy was actually doing pretty good and had been for most of the year. They did their job - they got Clinton elected. The truth was secondary.

Back in 2000 when the economy was slowing, Bush 43 talked about it. Clinton complained that Bush was "talking down the economy." What hypocrisy!

9:42 AM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger GawainsGhost said...

Well, I certainly agree that the media is driving much of the perception that the economy is worse than it really is, and that once Obama is elected it will start reporting that the economy is better than everyone thought. This is their habit.

It's simply an extension of what Rush used to talk about. When Republicans are in office, the media reports on how many homeless people there are. When the Democrats are in office, they don't. But the salient point is that the actual number of homeless people does not change, regardless of who is in office, merely the perception of how many homless there are.

It's the same with reporting on the economy. When Clinton was in office, the economy was great, but really that was an illusion as evidenced by the tech-bubble that burst shortly after he left office. When Bush came into office, the economy was terrible, but really that was an illusion as evidenced by years of steady growth. So I fully expect the media to report the economy is in good shape if Obama is elected and in bad shape if McCain is elected.

However, that does not mean the financial crisis is not real, because it is. This is an enormously complex issue that few understand and will take years to resolve, no matter who wins the election.

The problem is that the fundamental causes of this mess--CRA, Sarbanes-Oxley (mark-to-market accounting), questionable financing (no documentation, interest-only, adjustable-rate mortgages), securitization and structured investment vehicles--are not being addressed. There is nothing in the bailout plan that will fix any of these problems, so the crisis will only worsen.

This is a credit collapse that is being treated as a liquidity problem, when it really is a solvency problem. The reason why so many banks and financial institutions are failing is because they are insolvent, not because they don't have enough liquidity. They are overleveraged, not underfunded. Now the bills are due, and no one has the money to pay them.

If you have a cracked glass and pour liquid into it, and the liquid leaks out, adding more liquid does nothing to solve the problem. Only when the problem is correctly identified can the proper solution be found.

Simply because the media creates the perception that the glass is not cracked because a Democrat is holding it does not change reality.

10:14 AM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger Oligonicella said...

Um, my friend laying off two employees because he cannot make the numbers work to keep them on is not a 'perception', it is math.

11:46 AM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger br549 said...

Blogger just ate my post. Rats.

12:35 PM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger Undertow said...

We, the US, as a whole have a financial problem. We spend more than we make and leverage it by using credit cards to pay for stuff we want "now" but can't afford until "later".

While I don't deny there's bias in reporting in the economy I think I can say with absolutely certainty, as someone on the ground, that the inflation of food prices, fuel prices and utility prices is severely affecting the economy. Inflation of goods is out pacing the rise in wages.

12:55 PM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger James said...

I'm certainly no fan of the MSM, but it seems to me that there's an important difference with economic data in that objective economic data are easily available and are, in many cases, reported by the MSM. The reporting may include infusions of opinion, which are, I think, always unjustifiable, but the raw data from Dow Jones, Standard & Poor, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, etc., are there.

1:50 PM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger GawainsGhost said...

People think of inflation as rising prices. This is incorrect.

Inflation correctly understood is an expansion of the money supply and credit. Deflation is a contraction of the money supply and credit. Rising or falling prices are irrelevant.

We are now in a deflationary mode: the supply of money and credit is contracting. Prices are rising, but so what? If no one has the money or credit to pay for higher prices, then prices will fall. It's elementary. It's also the Austrian School of Economics.

3:03 PM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger TMink said...

Well, perception is always part of the problem, even when the math is there, we have to be able to perceive, decode, and make meaning out of the data.

Recently Nashville had a gas shortage. The numbers showed that gas purchases went up 40% those two weeks. I had heard, we had apparently ALL heard that there would be a shortage so we all tanked up and topped off. That caused a shortage.

Perception is not the only thing, but it has to be taken into consideration even when the math is there. It is darn important to have that math and respect the facts though!

Trey

3:49 PM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger Trust said...

@jg:

Yes you are right, my apology to all. The above article was 1999, not 2008 (habit).

6:20 PM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger br549 said...

I know that my personal attention has been on the recent goings on with Wall Street and Capitol Hill.

The company I work for is a manufacturing and sales organization. I am Sales Manager. The phone has stopped ringing almost over night, and it is officially my responsibility (spelled f-a-u-l-t).
Needless to say, I'm having a blast at work these days.

Anybody got any cheese?

8:12 PM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger br549 said...

trust, I have no other way to speak with you. I am wondering how your SO's health is. I am hopeful she is well.

8:30 PM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger Trust said...

@br549

it's very kind of you to remember and ask. (for those of you curious, br549 is asking about the recovery of my 32-year old wife who had her second bout with ovarian cancer this year)

she's doing as well as she can be all things considered. this latest bout has been the toughest since it had more surgery and she has lost many of her natural female chemistry, and she is having a hard time adjusting to things like artificial estrogen. the important thing is they caught it early both times and she survived. They say had it not been found that she would likely not have made it to 35. so we are thankful for that. the recovery and adjustments we'll deal with, i'm just glad she's still here.

It means a lot to me that you asked. :)

8:57 PM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger TMink said...

Trust, tell her we are praying for you all.

Trey

10:35 PM, October 07, 2008  
Blogger Trust said...

Thank you, Trey.

8:11 AM, October 08, 2008  
Blogger Marc A. said...

Perception is indeed important. Ever since the news broke last week, the result of most calls made by my salesman tends toward the "I'm interested, but I'll wait until next year to see how the economy shakes out."

This is very frustrating since 90% of our clients are in the USA. We've started to expand into Europe as well, and now they're having problems too! Grrr...

12:01 PM, October 08, 2008  
Blogger br549 said...

you are certainly welcome, trust. As tmink says, she is in our thoughts and prayers.

4:17 PM, October 08, 2008  
Blogger Trust said...

@marc a.: "I'm interested, but I'll wait until next year to see how the economy shakes out."

Once people start to think the economy is bad, it's a catch-22. They won't invest until the economy improves, yet the economy won't improve until they invest.

If the front page of the local paper tomorrow said the town bank was going bankrupt, everyone would rush in and pull their accounts and it would go bankrupt. It's not hard to understand self-fulfilling prophecies. That is what is happening here.

10:05 PM, October 08, 2008  
Blogger Cas said...

...While I don't deny there's bias in reporting in the economy I think I can say with absolutely certainty, as someone on the ground, that the inflation of food prices, fuel prices and utility prices is severely affecting the economy. Inflation of goods is out pacing the rise in wages.

Inflation of Food prices?
-Isn't Congress that "legislative body" that passed the "Energy bill" that mandated bio-fuels/ ethanol use to replace "foriegn imported oil"?

Inflation of Fuel prices?
-See above.
-EXACTLY HOW MUCH hydrocarbons and / or "fossil fuels" are avaialble within the US?
-- Off-shore / ANWR Oil and Natural Gas?
--"Clean" coal?
-- Oil Shale?
before we ever talk about "renewables" (AKA wind / solar power)...

Inflation of Utility prices?
-"Not in My Back Yard" (NIMBY) no matter what it may be...Nuclear Power plant, Hi Voltage Electricity transmission line, even an Oil refinery (see above)
-Even when the local residents agree with construction of these facilities (more high paying jobs), enviro-lawyers tie up ANY such construction for YEARS, until the construction is abandoned as too expensive, or from bankruptcy.

SO, do you think there possibly some ways that policy (and not just meida bias) could effect the economy? (/sarcasm)

10:00 AM, October 09, 2008  
Blogger InternetFred said...

Besides the Ted Spread, there is the stock market.

Both are driven by Fear and Greed. Two important psychological phenomenon. Of course the whole thing is psychological. So is eating dinner (I get hungry!).

The question is "How much of the fear is media-driven?" Possibly deliberately to help Obama. We could survey the media reports leading up to the mid-September rise in the Ted Spread.

11:31 AM, October 10, 2008  
Blogger Steve Selengut said...

Speaking of Garage Sales...

Investment Grade Value Stocks At Ten Year Lows

There has never been a correction that has not proven to be an investment opportunity. While everything is down in price, there is actually less to worry about than when prices are historically high. More money has been lost by people who bought into last year's markets than by those who will buy into this one, at this stage of the correction. When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping.

Every correction is different, the result of various economic and/or political circumstances that create the need for adjustments in the financial markets. This correction is worse than most that I've experienced, but the doom and gloom scenarios many have been pushing are unlikely to come to fruition. Once the media elects a new president, they'll just have to start reporting better news: 96% of all mortgages are current sounds a whole lot better than 20% of all sub-prime mortgages are in trouble.

Some fundamentals in many excellent companies have eroded significantly (due in part to accounting rules that are being changed), but for the most part, interest payments are being made and few dividends have been cut. Bargain prices abound in both the equity and fixed income markets and interest rates are historically low.

A cocktail of credit market laxatives is working its way into a constipated world economy. Relief is on the way. Today's prices may well be looked at as the lowest of the next ten years! Here's a list of things to think about or to do while Investment Grade value Stock prices are at ten-year lows:

Don't beat yourself up by looking at your account market value. You should expect it to be down significantly because all security prices have fallen. Look for ways to add to your portfolios---that's what the smart guys are doing.

Keep in mind that someone is buying the individual shares that the others are selling. The buyers will hold on until they can turn a profit, and the cash on the sidelines will eventually find its way back into the markets as prices rise.

There are no crystal balls, and no place for hindsight in an investment strategy. Buying too soon, in the right portfolio percentage, is nearly as important to long-term investment success as selling too soon is during rallies.

Take a look at the future. Nope, you can't tell when the rally will come or how long it will last. If you are buying quality securities now, as you certainly should be, you will be able to love the rally even more than you did the last time--- as you take yet another round of profits.

As, or if, the correction continues, buy more slowly as opposed to more quickly, and establish new positions incompletely so that you can add to them safely later. There's more to "Shop at The Gap" than meets the eye, and you may run out of cash well before the new rally begins.

Cash flow is king, so take smaller profits sooner than usual as long as there are abundant buying opportunities. Today, nearly eighty percent of all Investment Grade Value Stocks are down more than 15% from their 52-week highs.

In looking at your income securities, cash flow is the primary concern; as long as it continues unabated, the change in market value is merely a perceptual/emotional issue. A loosening of the credit markets should move CEF prices back into normal ranges.

Note that Working Capital keeps growing in spite of falling prices. Examine your holdings for opportunities to average down on cost per share or to increase your yield on fixed income securities.

Identify new buying opportunities using a consistent set of rules, rally or correction. That way you will always know which of the two you are dealing with in spite of what the Wall Street propaganda mill spits out. Focus on Investment Grade Value Stocks; it's easier, generally less risky, and better for your peace of mind.

Stop examining your portfolio's performance in market value terms--- it leads to fearful, often frantic, decision-making. Keep your asset allocation and investment objectives clearly in focus and try to think in terms of market and economic cycles as opposed to calendar quarters and years. The Working Capital Model provides a calmer way of dealing with portfolio dislocations during severe corrections.

So long as everything is down, there is really less to worry about. This is the result of panic selling by ETF and open-end mutual fund owners and the beginnings of year-end window dressing by fund managers.

Corrections, regardless of cause, will vary in depth and duration, but both characteristics are only clearly visible in rear view mirrors. The short and deep ones are most lovable; the long and slow ones are more difficult to deal with. If you over-think the environment or over-cook the research, you'll miss the after-party.

Unlike many things in life, Stock Market realities need to be dealt with quickly, decisively, and with zero hindsight. Because amid all the uncertainty, there is one indisputable fact that reads equally well in either market direction: there has never been a correction/rally that has not succumbed to the next rally/correction.

Get out there and buy low for a change.


Steve Selengut
http://www.kiawahgolfinvestmentseminars.com/
http://www.valuestockindex.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"

10:22 AM, October 11, 2008  
Blogger sex said...

免費視訊聊天,辣妹視訊,視訊交友網,美女視訊,視訊交友,視訊交友90739,成人聊天室,視訊聊天室,視訊聊天,視訊聊天室,情色視訊,情人視訊網,視訊美女,一葉情貼圖片區,免費視訊聊天室,免費視訊,ut聊天室,聊天室,豆豆聊天室,尋夢園聊天室,聊天室尋夢園,影音視訊聊天室

威而柔,自慰套,自慰套,SM,充氣娃娃,充氣娃娃,潤滑液,飛機杯,按摩棒,跳蛋,性感睡衣,威而柔,自慰套,自慰套,SM,充氣娃娃,充氣娃娃,潤滑液,飛機杯,按摩棒,跳蛋,性感睡衣
情惑用品性易購,情侶歡愉用品

色情遊戲,寄情築園小遊戲,情色文學,一葉情貼圖片區,情惑用品性易購,情人視訊網,辣妹視訊,情色交友,成人論壇,情色論壇,愛情公寓,情色,舊情人,情色貼圖,色情聊天室,色情小說,做愛,做愛影片,性愛

情惑用品性易購,aio交友愛情館,一葉情貼圖片區,情趣用品,情侶歡愉用品

辣妹視訊,美女視訊,視訊交友網,視訊聊天室,視訊交友,視訊美女,免費視訊,免費視訊聊天,視訊交友90739,免費視訊聊天室,成人聊天室,視訊聊天,視訊交友aooyy,哈啦聊天室,辣妺視訊

A片,色情A片,視訊,080視訊聊天室,視訊美女34c,視訊情人高雄網,視訊交友高雄網

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情侶歡愉用品

網頁設計,徵信社

5:50 AM, February 10, 2009  
Blogger blog said...

This is the latest and hottest ghd styler ever. If you need a ghd hair straighteners, this is a must buyghd hair straighteners,cheap ghd hair straighteners,pink ghd hair straightenersghd straightenersComme vous pouvez le voir, il s'agit d'une paire de chaussures shox classiquepink ghd hair straighteners . Si vous souhaitez poursuivre la mode, nike shox NZ sont votre meilleu…nike tnCette paire de Nike Shox Torch est chaud en maintenant la demande.nike chaussurestn chaussures

3:19 AM, March 08, 2009  
Blogger look said...

情趣用品,
性感睡衣,
免費視訊聊天,
視訊交友網,
美姬圖影,
情境坊歡愉用品,
花美姬情趣用品,
成人圖片,
臺灣情色網,
嘟嘟情人色網,
色情網站,
情境坊歡愉用品,
徵信,
徵信公司,
徵信,
外遇,
徵信,
徵信,
抓姦,
徵信,
外遇,
徵信,
徵信社,
徵信社,
抓姦,
徵信社,
徵信社,
徵信社,
,
,
整型,
視訊聊天,
視訊交友,
AV女優,
色情,
A片,
A片,
情趣用品,
情色,
A片,
色情影片,
情趣用品,
A片,
AV女優,
視訊聊天室,
聊天,
情趣用品,
情惑用品性易購,
情侶歡愉用品,
A片,
情趣,
情惑用品性易購,
辣妹視訊,
自慰套,
情侶歡愉用品,
寄情築園小遊戲,
aio交友愛情館,
美女視訊,
色情A片,
情趣用品,
徵信社,
情趣用品,
A片,
美女視訊,
色情A片,
AV女優,
A片,
辣妹視訊,
自慰套,
情侶歡愉用品,

4:07 PM, March 15, 2009  
Blogger look said...

情趣用品,
性感睡衣,
免費視訊聊天,
視訊交友網,
美姬圖影,
情境坊歡愉用品,
花美姬情趣用品,
成人圖片,
臺灣情色網,
嘟嘟情人色網,
色情網站,
情境坊歡愉用品,
徵信,
徵信公司,
徵信,
外遇,
徵信,
徵信,
抓姦,
徵信,
外遇,
徵信,
徵信社,
徵信社,
抓姦,
徵信社,
徵信社,
徵信社,
,
,
整型,
視訊聊天,
視訊交友,
AV女優,
色情,
A片,
A片,
情趣用品,
情色,
A片,
色情影片,
情趣用品,
A片,
AV女優,
視訊聊天室,
聊天,
情趣用品,
情惑用品性易購,
情侶歡愉用品,
A片,
情趣,
情惑用品性易購,
辣妹視訊,
自慰套,
情侶歡愉用品,
寄情築園小遊戲,
aio交友愛情館,
美女視訊,
色情A片,
情趣用品,
徵信社,
情趣用品,
A片,
美女視訊,
色情A片,
AV女優,
A片,
辣妹視訊,
自慰套,
情侶歡愉用品,

4:15 PM, March 15, 2009  
Blogger nini said...

85cc免費影城 愛情公寓正妹牆川藏第一美女 成人影片 情色交友網 美女視訊 美女視訊 視訊情人高雄網 JP成人影城 383成人影城 aa片免費a片下載 a片線上看aa片免費看 ※a片線上試看※sex520免費影片※ aa片免費看 BT成人論壇 金瓶影片交流區 自拍美女聊天室 aa片免費a片下載 SEX520免費影片 免費a片 日本美女寫真集 sex520aa免費影片 sex520aa免費影片 BT成人網 Hotsee免費視訊交友 百分百貼影片區 SEX520免費影片 免費視訊聊天室 情人視訊高雄網 星光情色討論版 正妹牆 383成人影城 線上85cc免費影城 85cc免費影城 85cc免費影城 85cc免費影城 ※免費視訊聊天室※ ※免費視訊聊天室※ 免費視訊聊天室 85cc免費影片 85cc免費影片 080苗栗人聊天室 080苗栗人聊天室 080中部人聊天室 080中部人聊天室 免費a片下載 免費a片 AA片免費看 aa片免費看 aa片免費看 aa片免費看 aa片免費看 日本av女優影片 av女優 av女優無碼影城 av女優 av女優 百分百成人圖片 百分百成人圖片 視訊情人高雄網 電話交友 影音電話交友 絕色影城 絕色影城 夜未眠成人影城 夜未眠成人影城 色咪咪影片網 色咪咪影片網 色咪咪影片網 色咪咪影片網 色咪咪影片網 免費色咪咪貼影片 免費色咪咪貼影片 色情遊戲 色情遊戲 色情遊戲 色情遊戲 影音視訊交友網 視訊交友網 080視訊聊天室 ※免費視訊聊天室※ ※免費視訊聊天室※ 視訊聊天室 成人影音視訊聊天室 ut影音視訊聊天室 ※免費視訊聊天室※ 視訊ukiss聊天室視訊ukiss聊天室 視訊交友90739 視訊交友90739 情人視訊網 168視訊美女 168視訊美女 168視訊美女 視訊美女館 視訊美女館 免費視訊美女網 小高聊天室 小高聊天室 aio交友聊天室 aio交友聊天室 交友聊天室 交友聊天室 線上a片 線上a片 線上a片 線上a片 線上a片 免費線上a片 免費線上a片 嘟嘟成人網站 成人漫畫 情色文學 嘟嘟成人網 成人貼圖區 情色文學成人小說 微風成人區 情色貼圖區 免費視訊聊天 免費成人圖片區 愛情公寓 愛情公寓聊天室 寄情築園小遊戲 免費aa片線上看 aa片免費看 情色SXE聊天室 SEX情色遊戲 色情A片 免費下載 av女優 俱樂部 情色論壇 辣妹視訊 情色貼圖網 免費色情 聊天室 情人視訊聊天室 免費a片成人影城 免費a片-aa片免費看 0204貼圖區 SEX情色 交友聊天-線上免費 女優天堂 成人交友網 成人情色貼圖區 18禁 -女優王國 080視訊美女聊天室 080視訊聊天室 視訊交友90739 免費a片 aio 視訊交友網 成人影城-免費a片※免費視訊聊天※85cc免費影片日本線上免費a片 免費色咪咪影片免費色咪咪影片aaa片免費看影片aaa片免費看成人影城免費色咪咪影片

3:52 PM, April 06, 2009  
Blogger 天天看正妹 said...

免費視訊聊天 ut聊天室辣妹視訊UT影音視訊聊天室 吉澤明步QQ美女視訊秀 85cc免費影片aa影片下載城sex免費成人影片aaa片免費看短片美女視訊 sex383線上娛樂場av969 免費短片日本免費視訊aa影片下載城視訊網愛聊天室影音視訊交友 咆哮小老鼠分享論壇sex520免費影片aa免費影片下載城aio辣妺視訊 aio辣妹交友愛情館 jp成人影片aio交友愛情館馬子免費影片免費線上a片18成人85cc影城0204movie免費色咪咪視訊網pc交友s383視訊玩美女人34c高雄視訊聊天jp成人免費視訊辣妹 kk777視訊俱樂部xxxpandalive173影音視訊聊天室 sex520-卡通影片成人免費視訊 完美女人13060 免費視訊聊天sexy girl video movie辣妹妹影音視訊聊天室UT視訊美女交友視訊情色網百事無碼a片dvd線上aa片免費看18禁成人網ut聊天室kk俱樂部視訊激情網愛聊天 情人小魔女自拍卡通aa片免費看夜未眠成人影城aio性愛dvd辣妹影片直播拓網視訊交友視訊聊天室ggoo168論壇視訊辣妹love104影音live秀 美女show-live視訊情色yam交友辣妹妹影音視訊聊天室s383情色大網咖視訊aaa俱樂部台灣情色網無碼avdvdsexy diamond sex888入口Show-live視訊聊天室

5:29 AM, April 15, 2009  
Blogger 天天看正妹 said...

免費 a 片aaaaa片俱樂部影片aaaaa片俱樂部dodo豆豆聊天室sex520網路自拍美女聊天室天堂免費線上avdvd援交av080影片aa影片下載城aaa片免費看短片成人圖片區18成人avooogo2av免費影片sexdiy影城免費線上成人影片bonbonsex0951影片下載日本av女優sex888免費看影片免費視訊78論壇辣妹有約辣妹no31314視訊dudu sex免費影片avdvd情色影片免費色咪咪影片網av080免費試看日本美女寫真集辣妹脫衣麻將視訊聊天室性福免費影片分享日本美女寫真集,kk視訊aio交友愛情館免費成人美女視訊bt論壇色情自拍免費a片卡通tw 18 net卡通18美少女圖色情漫畫777美女小護士免費 aa 片試看百分百成人情色圖片a片免費觀賞sexy girls get fuckedsexy girl video movie情色文學成人小說sex888免費看eyny 伊莉論壇sexdiy影城自拍情色0204movie免費影片aio免費aa片試看s383情色大網咖sexy girl video movie草莓牛奶AV論壇台灣論壇18禁遊戲區環球辣妹聊天室 90691拓網aio交友愛情館拓網學生族視訊777美女 sex888影片分享區hi5 tv免費影片aa的滿18歲卡通影片sex383線上娛樂場sexdiy影城免費a片線上觀看真人美女辣妹鋼管脫衣秀比基尼辣妹一夜情視訊aio交友愛情館

5:29 AM, April 15, 2009  
Blogger 天天看正妹 said...

視訊做愛聊天室avdvd-情色網ut13077視訊聊天A片-無碼援交東京熱一本道aaa免費看影片免費視訊聊天室微風成人ut聊天室av1688影音視訊天堂85cc免費影城亞洲禁果影城微風成人av論壇sex520免費影片JP成人網免費成人視訊aaa影片下載城免費a片 ut交友成人視訊85cc成人影城免費A片aa的滿18歲影片小魔女免費影片小魔女免費影城免費看 aa的滿18歲影片sex383線上娛樂場kk777視訊俱樂部aa的滿18歲影片85cc免費影片a片免費看A片-sex520plus論壇sex520免費影片85cc免費影片aaa片免費看短片aa影片下載城aaaaa片俱樂部影片aaaaa片俱樂部aa的滿18歲影片小魔女免費影片台灣論壇免費影片免費卡通影片線上觀看線上免費a片觀看85cc免費影片免費A片aa影片下載城ut聊天室辣妹視訊UT影音視訊聊天室 日本免費視訊aaaa 片俱樂部aaa片免費看短片aaaa片免費看影片aaa片免費看短片免費視訊78論壇情色偷拍免費A片免費aaaaa片俱樂部影片後宮0204movie免費影片av俱樂部aaaa彩虹頻道免費影片 杜蕾斯成人免費卡通影片線上觀看85cc免費影片線上觀賞免費線上歐美A片觀看免費a片卡通aaa的滿18歲卡通影片sex520免費影片免費 a 片免費視訊聊天jp成人sex520免費影片

5:29 AM, April 15, 2009  
Blogger 徵信 said...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 外遇
外遇 外遇外遇 外遇 外遇
外遇 外遇 外遇
外遇


外遇 外遇
外遇
外遇 外遇外遇
外遇

外遇 外遇外遇 外遇 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 ,
外遇 外遇 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇外遇 外遇外遇 外遇 外遇

外遇 外遇

外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇劈腿劈腿劈腿劈腿劈腿劈腿劈腿劈腿喜帖囍帖卡片外遇外遇 外遇 外遇外遇 外遇
外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇剖析 外遇調查 外遇案例 外遇諮詢 偷情 第三者外遇話題 外遇發洩 感情挽回 徵信社 外遇心態 外遇 通姦 通姦罪 外遇徵信社徵信社外遇 外遇 抓姦徵信協會徵信公司 包二奶 徵信社 徵信 徵信社 徵信社 徵信社 徵信社 徵信 徵信 婚姻 婚前徵信 前科 個人資料 外遇 第三者 徵信社 偵探社 抓姦 偵探社 偵探社婚 偵探社 偵探社偵探家事服務家事服務家電維修家事服務家事服務家事服務家事服務家事服務持久持久持久持久持久持久持久離婚網頁設計徵信社徵信社徵信徵信社外遇離婚協議書劈腿持久持久持久持久持久劈腿剖析徵信徵信社外遇外遇外遇外遇徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信徵信社徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信社徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信公會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信公會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信公會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 徵信協會 劈腿 劈腿 劈腿 劈腿 劈腿 劈腿 劈腿 劈腿 劈腿 劈腿 劈腿 劈腿 劈腿 劈腿

2:15 AM, April 22, 2009  
Blogger 9988 said...

aa的滿18歲影片aa免費看aaaaa片俱樂部影片sex520免費影片85cc免費影城色咪咪影片網免費ava片線上看85cc免費影片aaaaa片俱樂部影片微風成人 線上a片aa免費看微風成人區SEX520免費影片小弟第貼影片區85cc免費影城85cc免費影城 aa片免費看38ga片a片線上免費看夜未眠成人影城日本av女優色色網免費線上a片85cc免費影片sex520免費影片SEX520免費影片sex520免費影片 台灣a片王免費視訊聊天室 免費a片欣賞情色a片kk777視訊俱樂部百分百貼影片區視訊聊天室 交友網嘟嘟情人色網日本成人短片線上a片SEX520免費影片金瓶影片交流區正妹視訊ggoo 台灣情色論壇aa片免費看aaaaa片俱樂部影片色情遊戲a片線上看aa片免費看免費色片狂看成人影城 台灣a片王av1688影音娛樂網癡漢俱樂部sex888影片分享區免費a片下載觀看免費A影片直播※免費線上 a 電影直播※BT成人情色網站免費影片色咪咪影片網成人卡通電影免費線上a片AA片免費看美女寫真本土自拍貼影片區免費av18禁影片免費ava片線上看 台灣a片王SEX520免費影片情色論壇台灣18成人網 - TW後宮電影院383成人影城-免費a片線上免費a片aaaaa片俱樂部影片SEX520免費影片歐美線上a片微風成人影片qq美美色網女人色色網 a片區視訊做愛卡通a片SEX520免費影片卡通a片※免費檳榔西施摸奶影片※尋夢園聊天室☆♀ 限制級a片 ☆♀色咪咪影片網微風成人區BT成人論壇日本免費a片成人動畫免費看sex520免費影片美女視訊ggoo85cc免費影片aa的18歲影片八國聯軍成人情色網卡通a片BT成人☆♀ 免費網友自拍影片 ☆♀ 小瓢蟲情色論壇免費線上a片SEX520免費影片百分百貼影片區視訊交友90739aaa片免費看短片免費-線上a片色色網aaa片免費看短片 天堂情色網綜合論壇台灣情色網sex520免費影片※免費檳榔西施摸奶影片※免費av18禁影片視訊交友高雄網aio交友愛情館免費視訊聊天區免費下載電影視訊美女聊天室85cc免費影城免費視訊聊天sex520免費影片視訊交友網aa免費看免費影片線上直播電玩美少女瑤瑤一葉晴貼影片18禁地少女遊戲☆♀ 成人電影下載 ☆♀不夜城情色論壇嘟嘟成年人網080苗栗聊天室080苗栗人聊天室※免費線上 a 電影直播※卡通a片小魔女貼影片區免費aaa片俱樂部

10:10 AM, May 05, 2009  
Blogger 1798 said...

視訊做愛視訊美女無碼A片情色影劇kyo成人動漫tt1069同志交友網ut同志交友網微風成人論壇6k聊天室日本 avdvd 介紹免費觀賞UT視訊美女交友..........................

6:30 AM, May 20, 2009  
Blogger 1122 said...

豆豆聊天室男同志聊天室0800a片網080苗栗人聊天室080苗栗人聊天室女同志聊天室sex女優王國080中部人聊天室ut視訊聊天聊天室ut尋夢園聊天聯盟聊天同志聊天室a片卡通ut影音視訊聊天室13077ut女同聊天室免費視訊聊天上班族聊天室免費線上成人影片新浪辣妹視訊

4:50 AM, June 08, 2009  

Post a Comment

<< Home